The Iran War: What it means for your investments
With the ongoing conflict in Iran, many investors are experiencing heightened market volatility and uncertainty. Although it is a stressful time with plenty of uncertainty, understanding what drives turbulence can help you make more informed decisions.
What is happening and why does it matter?
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran, triggering a cascade of economic consequences that are now being felt across the globe. In retaliation, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, the Strait of Hormuz Waterway is responsible for approximately 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade.
You've likely seen the impact firsthand at the gas station. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, average U.S. gas prices jumped from $2.908/gallon on February 28, 2026, to $3.638/gallon on March 31, 2026. However, the disruption goes beyond just gas. Petrochemicals, fertilizers, and raw materials used in everyday manufacturing have all been affected, adding additional pressure to an already complex inflation picture.
What could this mean for the Federal Reserve?
This kind of energy shock is exactly the type of signal the Fed typically watches for. When energy prices spike rapidly, inflation expectations often rise with them. This means the Fed could potentially respond by pausing rate cuts or, in a more aggressive scenario, raise rates. We saw this dynamic play out in 2022, and the concern is very real. The European Central bank has already postponed its planned rate reduction in response to the conflict, raising its inflation forecast and cutting growth projections for 2026. The U.S. Federal Reserve faces similar pressure.
So, what should I do?
The truth is no one has a crystal ball. What we do know is that trying to time the market has consistently produced far worse outcomes than simply staying put in the market. Although market volatility is painful, it creates real long-term opportunities for investors, such as tax loss harvesting, Roth conversions, and strategic rebalancing.
"The stock market is a mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient."
- Warren Buffett
Ohio Deferred Comp (ODC) is a 457b voluntary contribution retirement plan. This plan is only available for Ohio public employees. It looks and operates much like a 401k plan in the private sector.
As an Ohio public employee, you’re required to pay into one of the Ohio pension systems based on your position and certification.
Ex. Teachers pay into STRS Ohio, and police officers pay into OP&F. If you’re a state employee, you pay into OPERS.
Ohio public employees have either heard of or current contribute to the ODC 457b plan. Often, we have found that many people contribute to the plan to “save more” for retirement but don’t understand:
1) How much they should save.
2) Where they should save. Pre-tax or Roth.
3) Which investments have the most risk.
4) Why considering their tax rate today and in retirement is critical.
5) That retirement savings in the ODC and OH pension isn’t their full financial situation.
We recommend ODC for two reasons:
1) Ease of Use: The contribution can come directly from your paycheck.
2) It’s cheaper than the 403b offered by school districts.
Where it falls short:
1) They offer a limited choice of investment options, especially for retirees.
2) The lack of relationships: Contributors speak with an 800 number. Someone different each time.
3) ODC doesn’t understand the contributors’ full financial picture to offer them the best options for which plan they should choose, which investments are best for their total picture and optimal distribution strategy to keep taxes as low as possible.
We prefer to figure out what is best for our clients first. If ODC is the best for our clients, we then decide if pre-tax or Roth is best. Next, we decide what is the client’s best investment option and how much they should contribute.
Saving more for retirement in addition to your pension is a good thing. Let’s ensure you are contributing the correct amount into the correct plan and investments.
One of the most rewarding parts of my work is getting to walk alongside clients through major life transitions. Recently, I had the pleasure of celebrating the retirement of Tom and Barb Turner, two people whose careers have left a lasting impact on countless others.
Tom recently received the prestigious Dr. Thomas Fleck Award from US Youth Soccer. This national honor recognizes individuals who have made a lifetime commitment to educating youth soccer coaches with integrity, humility, and dedication.
Tom’s love of soccer began as a player, but his influence on the game expanded dramatically through his work as a coach, educator, andmentor. He served as the men’s head coach at Cleveland State University, worked as Director of Coaching for Ohio Youth Soccer Association -North and the now merged Ohio Soccer Association, and contributed to the development of soccer programs across the country. Over the years, he helped educate thousands of coaches—teaching more than 800 coaching courses in 36 states—and even served as an assistant coach with U.S. youth national teams. Tom continues to serve as a “Teacher of Teachers” for U.S. Soccer.
Tom now enters this next chapter alongside his wife, Barb, who also recently retired after more than 35 years at Cleveland State University. A career which centered around her role as the Associate Director of the Center for International Services and Programs, before closing out her career as an academic advisor in the College of Science and Health Professions. In that role, Barb guided and supported countless students as they pursued careers dedicated to helping others.
In retirement, Tom and Barb are looking forward to enjoying some of their favorite passions. Tom is a devoted supporter of the Columbus Crew, while Barb cheers on the Cleveland Guardians. They also look forward to traveling - especially trips to Scotland, where Tom grew up and where they enjoy spending time with his family.
Together, Tom and Barb have dedicated their professional lives to education, mentorship, and service. Their careers are a wonderful reminder that the true measure of success is the positive impact we have on others.
What would you recommend to those that haven't yet retired so they can approach retirement successfully?
Think of Tortoise and Hare. Start the financial planning process early. Don’t watch the day-to-day fluctuations of the markets. Even in periods of economic or political instability, there is money to be made! Let professional investors do what they do best.
Many of our clients rely on pensions from Ohio’s three major public retirement systems: Ohio Public Employees Retirement System (OPERS), State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio (STRS), and Ohio Police & Fire Pension Fund (OP&F).
A question we hear often is: How financially stable are these pensions?
One of the best ways to evaluate the health of a pension system is the funded ratio.
The funded ratio measures how much money a pension system has compared to what it has promised to pay retirees in the future.
- 100% funded means the system has enough assets today to cover all projected future benefits.
- Most large public pension systems operate safely under 100% because benefits are paid over many decades and contributions continue coming in.
Across the U.S., the average public pension funded ratio is roughly around 75–80%, meaning Ohio’s systems are generally within the typical range for public plans.
Latest funding levels for Ohio pensions:
The Ohio Public Employees Retirement System is currently one of the stronger funded pensions in the state.
- Funded ratio: about 82%
- This means OPERS has about 82 cents set aside for every dollar of future pension obligations.
The system also reported strong investment returns in 2025, with the defined benefit fund returning more than 14%, which helps support long-term funding stability.
The State Teachers Retirement System manages roughly $96 billion in assets for more than half a million educators across Ohio.
Recent reports indicate the system still has about $20 billion in unfunded liabilities, meaning the fund is not fully funded but continues to pay benefits and improve funding through contributions and investment returns.
Like most large pensions, STRS relies on long-term investment growth and ongoing contributions to close this gap over time.
The Ohio Police & Fire Pension Fund currently has a funded ratio of about 68%.
While lower than OPERS, the system still meets Ohio’s statutory funding requirements and continues to make progress toward long-term funding targets.
Recent investment performance has been strong, with OP&F ranking near the top among pension funds for returns in recent periods.
Overall, Ohio’s pension systems remain stable long-term institutions designed to pay benefits over many decades. Key factors supporting their stability include:
- Mandatory employee and employer contributions
- Long investment horizons
- Professional investment management
- Ongoing actuarial oversight and funding requirements
While pensions may adjust COLAs, retirement eligibility, or contribution levels over time, the core pension benefits for current retirees have historically remained reliable.
We recently hosted our Roth Conversion Webinar, where we covered the basics of how Roth and Traditional IRAs work, how Roth conversions are done, and when they might make sense. We also shared a few real-life examples to help show how these strategies can impact your long-term tax plan. If you were not able to join us, we encourage you to watch the full recording to learn more.
As part of our ongoing effort to keep you informed, we’ll be hosting a webinar each quarter on important financial planning topics. Our goal is to break things down in a way that’s easy to understand and helps you feel more confident in your decisions.
Looking ahead, our next webinar will focus on Estate Planning, covering the key things you should know, common mistakes to avoid, and how to make sure your plan reflects what matters most to you. We hope you’ll be able to join us!
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